If China is the rising twenty-first century power then we can expect to see a lot written about this in the coming years.  Two new additions to this growing canon are: ‘What Does China Think?’ by Mark Leonard (Fourth Estate, 2008) and ‘The Writing on the Wall: China and the West in the 21st Century’ by Will Hutton (Abacus, 2007).

Leonard’s cogent analysis is of China’s attempt to make State capitalism work.  There is much thinking going on inside China on how to make their current system work (or more accurately, how to perpetuate one party rule).  This might look a hopeless cause to some of us, but there are many countries around the world who would happily subscribe to the kind of authoritarian development China is making.  Economic development allied to one party rule and a poor record on human rights suits many corrupt rulers – a so-called ‘Beijing consensus’ to rival the ‘Washington consensus’ of free market capitalism allied to liberal democracy.  Leonard wonders if it can be pulled off.

Will Hutton is sure it can’t, precisely because China lacks any real commitment to what he calls the ‘Enlightenment architecture’ of democratic accountability, a free press, independent trades unions, enforceable private property rights and the rule of law.  It only takes a minor earthquake to bring the edifice crashing down and China is heading for one with its unsustainable economic growth.  It is no good the western powers feeling smug about this, because the shock waves would be felt by all.  Instead, China must be helped to build this ‘enlightenment architecture’. 

Behind this argument lies the welfare of China’s growing Church.  Its influence could be global if it had those freedoms.  I wonder if Will Hutton fully realised what it meant to say in his title that the ‘writing is on the wall’?