THE OBAMA DOCTRINE
The weather may one day turn from being a talking point to a cause for sending the troops in. 
 

“When genocide is happening…around the world and we stand idly by, that diminishes us…and so I do believe we have to consider it as part of our interests, our national interests, in intervening where possible.”

These were the words of Barack Obama in the second Presidential debate last October, what may come in time to be known as the Obama Doctrine.  The high water mark of humanitarian intervention was either side of 2000 in Kosovo and Sierra Leone, though the long-term possibility of ethnic Albanians and Serbs living peacefully together is not much nearer a reality now than then.  The idea of coalitions of willing nations entering into sovereign countries to stop violent political repression received a severe blow from the experience in Iraq, but Obama is set to renew it. 

The implication of his full answer in the Presidential debate is that the United States must work more diligently in concert with its allies.  Like Blair and Bush before him though, there is no explicit indication that this means securing a UN Security Council mandate and indeed, with Russia and China’s new assertiveness and clout, there may be little chance of him obtaining it.
The Obama Doctrine
Clinton and Obama:
shapers of a new American foreign policy
 

Obama’s remark in the debate, that if the international community had been able to stop the genocide in Rwanda it would surely have done so, shows a poor grasp of the evidence.  The United States was smarting from the failed humanitarian operation in Somalia at the time (the ‘Black Hawk Down’ fiasco) and had no desire to get involved once a small contingent of Belgian troop had been murdered in Kigali.  The terrible continuing plight of people of the Great Lakes Region can be traced back to 1994.  There will surely also come a time in Obama’s presidency when ideals clash with political reality.

In the meantime a new shape to the equation is forming.  Should the international community intervene in the affairs of a sovereign nation when natural disaster overwhelms it and the government shows no interest or capacity for helping the people?  This happened in Burma after the impact of Cyclone Nargis in 2008.  The Burmese rulers had been given two days warning by the Indian government of the likely path and impact of the cyclone but made no attempt to evacuate people or to mount a relief operation.  This indifference to the welfare of its citizens was characteristic of the ruling Burmese junta and it came at a cost of over 100,000 lives, putting another one million more at serious risk from epidemic.

Natural disasters are going to acquire a more political flavour in the future.  Indigenous governments are sometimes reluctant to ask for outside help in cases of natural disaster because it symbolises their own weakness and can affect a critical change in the relationship between citizenry and government (this happened in the United States itself after Hurricane Katrina).  Yet the advent of climate change allied to a growing global population that is coalescing round large cities and coastal areas will compel us to address some hard questions.

The French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner believes the UN Security Council has an obligation under its ‘responsibility to protect’ doctrine to impose international relief where there is a gross failure of state responsibility.  But does such failure amount to a crime against humanity?  Humanitarian intervention is back on the scene and it is more ambiguous than ever.  Christian people should pray for wisdom for President Obama, Secretary of State Clinton and other influential people, that deep understanding is made available to them by the grace of God.  These will never be abstract theories, for potentially hundreds of thousands of lives are at stake – and more on top when any decision to intervene is made.

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